Society, Energy and Environment Scenario model -
SEEScen
Mark Barrett
's
model of a society's energy demand and supply system, and its associated
environmental impacts, is called SEEScen.
It can be used to rapidly explore scenarios for many countries.
An example of the application
of SEEScen to Europe may be found here.
Scenarios for the UK, using SEEScen
and other models are
under development here.
A
video of a Sankey diagram of the UK (see below) illustrating changes
to energy flows over 60 years for one scenario can be downloaded here (2.6
Mb, wmv) or here (0.6 Mb, gif).
Play this as a video, or pull the slider across to see the diagram
for different years.
SEEScen
incorporates 11 energy end uses (motive power, lighting, heating
etc.) across 15 sectors. Some of these end uses have physical models;
for example, domestic space heating and cooling are estimated with a model
of a house which allows the effects of parameters such as insulation and
internal temperatures to be examined.
These end uses are
then allocated to end use energy conversion devices (e.g. boilers) and
fuels (e.g. solar) and delivered fuel requirements calculated. Delivered
fuels are allocated to secondary fuels (e.g. electricity or gas) and primary
energy inputs calculated after conversion (e.g. in a power station or
refinery). Primary consumption is met by a mix of indigenous production
and imports.
Atmospheric emissions from
energy conversions are calculated. The costs of all technologies (demand
management as well as supply) and fuels and operational costs calculated
to give a total cost of energy services.
A database of energy technologies
has been compiled. This includes energy conversion and storage technologies
and demand management technologies. A fuels database contains data on
the physical characteristics of fuels, and price assumptions.
The main historical data inputs
to SEEScen are annually updated energy and socioeconomic
data from the OECD for all major countries of the world, and the model
can therefore be rapidly applied to these.
SEEScen can be
used to generate scenarios over years (its main use to date), to simulate
hourly flows, or, under development, to optimise by minimising cost for
a year.
Scenarios are constructed by
making assumptions about:
- Socioeconomic changes in
terms of population, household size, wealth, industrial production and
mix. Generally these are assumed constant across all scenarios.
- Demand patterns
- Levels of management, efficiency, energy mix and fuel prices
- Emission control in energy technologies
SEEScen
has been used to study low carbon scenarios for the
European Union incorporating fuel switching and energy efficiency. These
scenarios have been input into other programmes which calculate the costs
of meeting other targets including acid emission ceilings.
The structure of SEEScen is
shown below.
SEEScen can generate energy flow charts, called Sankey
diagrams.
Sankey diagrams for the
United Kingdom (1990) and (2050) are
shown. These demonstrate the shift from coal and nuclear to other
fuels, and the increasing fraction of energy that goes to transport.
This is because of growth in transport, particularly aviation, and
because it is easier technical to reduce energy demand in the stationary
sector, and provide alternative fuels.
