Aviation model

Mark Barrett 's  model of aviation is called AviAn. It simulates aviation demand and supply over a number of scenario years. 

AviAn  can be used to look at scenarios of aviation development with different policy options such as demand management, and technical and operational improvements. It also may be used to study the effects of environmental charges or taxes on aviation inputs, such as fuel, or outputs such as global warming effects.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AviAn was used to assess the future carbon emissions given assumptions about technological and operational improvements. This showed that emission increases greatly even if these are pushed to the maximum. Only if demand growth is controlled will emissions be more or less stabilised.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AviAn was used to investigate the effect of a 100% tax on aviation fuels for international operations. The reduction in the growth in fuel use and emissions is small as compared to the growth in demand.